NAB revises Japanese thermal coal contract price forecast for fiscal 2018-19 to $90/mt

Source – PLATTS

National Australia Bank has revised its forecast for the thermal coal contract price for the 2018-2019 (April-March) Japanese financial year to $90/mt, up from its previous forecast of $80/mt, it said Friday.

“Peak northern winter demand — with particularly cold weather across much of North Asia — has been boosted by shortages of natural gas in some Chinese regions, while supplies from Australia have been constrained by infrastructure constraints and labour disputes,” it said.

It said that the conclusion of peak winter demand and easing of supply constraints should provide downward pressure for spot prices in the coming months, but added that the may remain elevated during the contract negotiations.

“Chinese coal consumption is expected to decline further in coming years, as other technologies [particularly renewable] are set to take a greater share of China’s energy requirements,” it said.

Source: PLATTS