Shipping Market Insight – Konstantinos Kontomichis

Source: INTERMODAL RESEARCH & VALUATIONS/ SNP BROKER

2017 proved to be a relatively good year with positive margins for the Dry Bulk market. Especially during the last quarter of the year everyone can admit that it met expectations and we could arguably state that exceeded them. In the middle of December and just before the Christmas holidays, the BDI reached 1,700 points. The index hadn’t reached that specific number since January 2014, almost 4 full years. However, having entered 2018 and being halfway through the first quarter, we are witnessing an expected correction in the index. Like every year during Christmas and up to the peak of the Chinese Lunar New Year at the end of February, the Dry Bulk market is experiencing a decline which has been smaller in some years and larger in others. From the 12th December 2017 where the market reached its peak of 1,743 points the index started to decline. Currently the BDI remains in excess of 1.110 points and despite the correction in the index, which translates to around a 37% decrease, we observe a certain resilience, keeping it above 1,000 points.

Concerning the values for Bulk carriers we can argue that they are also resisting  a decrease. Prices have remained stable on January and February, after the increase on the values during the last quarter of 2017. On the SnP segment, the increased values of the last quarter do not appear to be affected from the decreased TC rates, a fact which has proven the high expectations of ship-owners to be accurate.  Buying interest for modern Japanese vessels remains firm across all sizes, with the supply of vessels currently being almost zero. The only modern five year old vessel which was sold in the middle of February was the “SOUTH TRADER” (180,200dwt-blt ‘13, Japan) which was sold to Singaporean buyers, for a price in the region of $36.5m.Two sales were reported for vessels which are around 10 years old. Handysizes “STAR LILY” (33,248dwt-blt ‘08, Japan) and “KUMANO LILY” (32,292dwt-blt ‘09, Japan) where sold en bloc to Hong Kong based buyers, for a price in the region of $10.3m and $11.2m respectively. On the other hand, buyers showing preference for Chinese vessels, proved to be relatively active, as we have had 17 SnP transactions comprising of 5 Handies, 5 Supras, 1 Ultra, 1 Kmax and 2 Post-Panamaxes.

The general feeling and the psychology shows to be positive and that is evident not only from SnP activity but also from the charterers side who, despite the decrease on T/C rates, have exhibited strong interest in T/C periods. Therefore, expectations from both sides coincide, both being optimistic. Lets see how positive the following months are going to be, and lets look forward for a strong 2018.

Source: INTERMODAL RESEARCH & VALUATIONS/ SNP BROKER