Shipping Market Insight – Stelios Kollintzas



Source: STELIOS KOLLINTZAS/ INTERMODAL RESEARCH & VALUATION

The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. However, in most cases tonnage supply has been more than enough to meet demand and rates have been moving sideways as a result.

At the same time the CPP markets are not supporting the situation at all, while a trade war between China and USA is having its own effect in certain routes. Additionally, changes on import/export taxes in the regional palm oil market are also shaping the cargo flow.

As things stand, fundamentals in the veg oil market ex- South America are in charterers favour. CPP freights in the West have been in the doldrums and this is having an effect on veg oil freights as well, as several CPP owners try to find leverage on alternative markets.  In addition, an increased import of CPP into Argentina/Brazil is building a long tonnage list in the South Atlantic. As if there were not enough negative factors in the market, the threat of China imposing import taxes on US agricultural products, including soy beans, is causing additional headache to traders.

The tax, which is considered a countermeasure on taxes already imposed by US on several products imported from China, is making traders cautious. This is to say that while soybean price from US has depreciated, the premium gained on the back of it by the soybean price from Argentina and Brazil, has in many cases made the product too expensive for the local crushers to buy. For the record, freight rates are still moving sideways at last done levels, USD mid-30s pmt bss 2/2 (South America/ India) on min 40,000mt.

Freight rates from the Black Sea are currently under pressure. While there is a steady flow of cargoes, the poor CPP market is pushing more Handy and MR tankers to look at loading sunflower oil from the Black Sea, however, shipments for the latter size are becoming scarcer lately. The 30-35,000mtons parcels to India are currently paying about USD high-30s/low-40s, while 35-40,000mtons parcels to China are paying about USD mid-40s, depending on port combination.

The long-haul palm oil market has generated some decent rates during the past month. However, given that the tonnage list for May is longer, unless there is an increase in activity, the positive trend is unlikely to continue. The rates for FOSFA MR ships on a TC Trip Far East/Europe are currently between 15,500-16,500 USD/pd.

Looking into the regional market, it is evident that the increased tax by 14% on India’s palm oil imports has had a significant impact on the country’s buying interest. On the contrary, Malaysia’s decision to suspend export taxes on CPO until the end of April has been partly offsetting the lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.

Source: STELIOS KOLLINTZAS/ INTERMODAL RESEARCH & VALUATION