China to suspend detailed customs data release for May amid trade tensions



Source: PLATTS

The Chinese authorities will suspend publication detailed of monthly trade data for May, making it the second consecutive month for which they have not released the information, citing technical issues, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told S&P Global Platts Thursday.

The shelving of the data release coincides with escalating trade tensions between the US and China, and sanctions on countries such as Iran with which China still maintains trade relations.

A more serious implication of the suspension is that it indicates US-China trade tensions remain high, with the potential for further escalation in the coming months.

The cancellation is likely to irritate market participants ranging from day traders to economists, who are already disgruntled after April’s trade data was suspended last month by the Chinese authorities with no proper explanation.

China’s General Administration of Customs usually releases detailed import-export data for all goods for a given month in the fourth week of the following month, according to a table on its official website.

The data for May was expected around June 25. But this is unlikely to happen, with technical issues cited as the cause of the delay.

The rationale can hardly be believed anymore, the source said, adding that this is the first time monthly data has been suspended for such a long time and that the suspension is longer than expected.

An informal notice was circulated last week saying that the data for April would be released in July, but the situation has worsened since then due to the trade tensions between the US and China, the source said previously.

Market participants who rely on the trade data for economic forecasts and projections are looking to alternatives such as shipping data providers who can fill the gap, although such information is unofficial and derived indirectly from tracking vessel movements.

“It’s boom time for the ship tracking business. That’s the only alternative,” oil products analyst with consulting firm Energy Aspects Nevyn Nah said.

Official trade data is far more sensitive to trade negotiations than ever before because it included China’s goods imports by country of origin and its exports by destination when it was still being published. This has been driving most of the market speculation about China’s motives for withholding the data.

A separate set of broad trade numbers, which does not contain a detailed breakdown, published around the first week of each month has not been discontinued.

Source: PLATTS